Red Sox vs. Royals Prediction, Odds, Picks – August 4

Red Sox vs. Royals Prediction, Odds, Picks – August 4

Updated Aug. 4, 2025, 7:00 p.m. ET

Jarren Duran and the Boston Red Sox are gearing up to face Bailey Falter, who will be starting for the Kansas City Royals this Monday at 7:10 p.m. ET. The Red Sox enter this matchup as favorites with odds of -163, while the Royals are the underdogs at +137, looking for an upset. Boston is also favored on the run line at -1.5. The total for the game is set at 9.5 runs, with odds of -101 for the over and -120 for the under.

Here’s everything you need to know from a betting perspective about the Red Sox-Royals game, including the run line, moneyline, total, and expert picks. Stay updated with MLB on FOX Sports.

Red Sox vs. Royals Game Information & Odds

When: Monday, August 4, 2025, at 7:10 p.m. ET

Where: Fenway Park, Boston, Massachusetts

How to watch on TV: NESN and FDSKC

Favorite | Moneyline | Underdog Moneyline | Total | Over Total Odds | Under Total Odds | Run Line Favorite | Run Line Odds | Underdog Run Line Odds

Red Sox -163 | +137 | 9.5 | -101 | -120 | -1.5 | +120 | -145

Red Sox vs. Royals Prediction

Score Prediction: Red Sox 5, Royals 4

Total Prediction: Under 9.5 runs

Win Probabilities: Red Sox 56%, Royals 44%

Red Sox vs. Royals Betting Insights

The Red Sox have achieved 40 wins, or 59.7%, in 67 games as favorites this season. Boston holds a record of 11-6 when entering a game favored by -163 or more on the moneyline. The implied probability of a Red Sox win, based on the moneyline, stands at 62%.

The Royals, meanwhile, have been underdogs in 68 games this season, securing wins 32 times (47.1%) kuala lumpur dota chery tiggo lineup 2023. Kansas City is 7-7 in games where sportsbooks favor them by +137 or worse on the moneyline. The moneyline for this matchup suggests the Royals have a 42.2% chance of winning.

Red Sox Recent Betting Performance

The Red Sox were favored on the moneyline in four of their last 10 games, achieving a 3-1 record in those matchups. Over their last 10 contests, the Red Sox and their opponents have gone over the total runs four times, with all 10 games having set totals. Currently, the Red Sox are 8-2-0 against the spread in their last 10 games.

Red Sox Recent Stats

Stat | Avg/Total

Record: 8-2

Runs Per Game: 5.9

Home Runs: 13

ERA: 3.03

K/9: 7.3

Red Sox Player Insights

Duran has been exceptional at getting on base and making an impact at the plate, leading the Red Sox with a .329 OBP, .457 slugging percentage, and 117 base hits. He ranks 124th in home runs and 46th in RBIs among all MLB hitters.

Ceddanne Rafaela boasts the highest batting average on the team at .267 and ranks 89th in home runs and 77th in RBIs in the majors. He carries a two-game hitting streak into this matchup, hitting .368 in his last five games with two doubles, a triple, and two RBIs.

Trevor Story leads the team with 69 RBIs and is on a five-game hitting streak, boasting a .500 batting average, four doubles, three home runs, two walks, and eight RBIs in his last five outings. Wilyer Abreu’s 20 home runs are the highest on the team.

Red Sox Team Props

Hits O/U | Total Bases O/U | HR O/U | RBI O/U

• Trevor Story: 0.5 (-265), 1.5 (+105), -, 0.5 (+140)
• Roman Anthony: 0.5 (-255), 1.5 (+105), -, 0.5 (+165)
• Rob Refsnyder: 0.5 (-215), 1.5 (+125), -, 0.5 (+160)
• Jarren Duran: 0.5 (-230), 1.5 (+110), -, 0.5 (+180)
• Ceddanne Rafaela: 0.5 (-280), 1.5 (+105), -, 0.5 (+150)

Royals Recent Betting Performance

The Royals have played as underdogs in five of their last 10 games, achieving a 3-2 record in those matches. In their last 10 games with set totals, the Royals and their opponents have failed to exceed the total runs four times, with a record of 7-3-0 ATS in the same span.

Royals Recent Stats

Stat | Avg/Total

Record: 7-3

Runs Per Game: 5.6

Home Runs: 16

ERA: 3.82

K/9: 6.8

Royals Player Insights

Bobby Witt Jr kind of trees in the philippines. boasts 37 doubles, three triples, 16 home runs, and 36 walks with a .285 batting average. His home run total ranks 62nd in the majors, while he stands 31st in RBIs. Maikel Garcia holds the highest batting average on the team at .297, ranking 144th in home runs and 86th in RBIs in the majors.

Vinnie Pasquantino leads the Royals with 66 RBIs, while Salvador Perez matches this with 20 home runs and also contributes 66 RBIs.

Royals Team Props

Hits O/U | Total Bases O/U | HR O/U | RBI O/U

• Maikel Garcia: 0.5 (-275), 1.5 (+115), -, 0.5 (+170)
• Jonathan India: 0.5 (-260), 1 antipolo scandal.5 (+120), -, 0.5 (+220)
• Vinnie Pasquantino: 1. 5 pesos leyte gulf landing price5 (+185), 1.5 (+105), -, 0.5 (+160)
• Salvador Pérez: 1.5 (+190), 1.5 (+105), -, 0.5 (+155)
• Bobby Witt Jr.: 1.5 (+145), 1.5 (-120), -, 0.5 (+155)

Ready to place your bets on the Red Sox vs. Royals game? What are your thoughts on the predicted outcome?